- 45% of people who transacted with Chipotle between August and October 2015 have not returned since the outbreaks.
- These churned consumers tend to dine out about 4 times per week, on average.
This begs the question: Who is gaining from Chipotle's loss?
We compared weekly dining patterns of two groups of consumers: those who churned from Chipotle after eating there between August and October 2015; and everyone else (whether they had dined at Chipotle recently or not). Specifically, we examined:
- the share of weekly meal-related transactions at specific eateries and categories for weeks before and after the outbreaks2 (Pre vs. Post outbreaks)
- the growth within an eatery or category from Pre to Post weeks for Chipotle’s churned diners and for all other consumers
- whether that growth differed between Chipotle’s churned diners and everyone else
The chart below shows some big gainers from Chipotle's loss - i.e., those eateries/categories where Chipotle's churned diners showed a greater gain than everyone else.
- Chipotle's churned diners are eating at home more.
- Meal delivery (e.g., Munchery) and meal kits (e.g., Blue Apron) gained the most from Chipotle's loss. Both had stronger gains with Chipotle's churned customers than with other diners.
- Groceries also showed stronger gains among Chipotle's churned customers.
- Mexican-themed eateries and taquerias are benefitting.
- Close comparables, like Qdoba and Freebirds, saw strong gains among Chipotle's churned diners. Local taquerias and Mexican-themed restaurants also increased their share.
- Among non-churned diners, Chipotle's share of weekly meal-related transactions, on average, did not change.
- Some eateries' gains were not associated with Chipotle's churn (e.g., Panda Express).